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Hi there, I'm Cem!

I am a research fellow at the School of Management, Polytechnic University of Milan since September 1, 2022. Formerly, I was a PhD student at Tinbergen Institute & Erasmus School of Economics.

My research develops Bayesian methods to elicit and aggregate preferences, beliefs and judgments.

Applications include truthful elicitation in surveys and experiments, identifying experts in forecasting, harnessing the wisdom of crowds, judgment aggregation for social choice etc.

I use insights and tools from Decision Theory, Experimental Economics and Behavioral Economics.


Peker, C. (2022). Extracting the collective wisdom in probabilistic judgments. Theory and Decision.

2022 ADA Best PhD Incubator Talk Award winner (link)

Decision Analysis Society 2022 Student Paper Award finalist (link)

(Supplemental Material)

Peker, C. (2022). Incentives for self-extremized expert judgments to alleviate the shared-information problem. Decision.

(Supplemental Material)

Working Papers

Peer prediction markets to elicit unverifiable information (pdf) (Presentation)

(joint with Aurélien Baillon and Sophie van der Zee)

Robust recalibration of aggregate probability forecasts using meta-beliefs (pdf)

(joint with Tom Wilkening)

Work in Progress

Bayesian voters may distort an accurate majority in interconnected decision problems

Using prediction interval skewness to improve forecast accuracy

(joint with Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor R.R. Jose, Jacob Rittich and Jack Soll)

A scoring rule for incentivizing self-knowledge in survey responses

Teaching Experience

I have teaching experience in the following:

  • Microeconomics
  • Behavioral / Experimental Economics
  • Game Theory, Mechanism Design
  • Quantitative Methods / Statistics (using R & Python)

At Erasmus School of Economics, I taught Applied Behavioral Economics in the masters' programme. I supervised experimental projects that apply behavioral insights in practical problems.

I also supervised bachelors' and masters' theses in Behavioral Economics.

In the past, I have been a TA in various courses in Tinbergen Institute and Bogazici University, Turkey.

You can find my CV here